A Page Written Before the Outcome
A Page Written Before the Outcome
A one-page decision journal for AI-assisted choices: write the reasons and your weakest assumption before the result, then read the page before you read the outcome.
Leading
Why Am I Set at 68?
Why Am I Set at 68?
Argyris's thermostat separates fixing errors inside a goal from questioning the goal. AI speeds up the first loop, which makes the second one the leader's job.
The Forecast Nobody Tested
The Forecast Nobody Tested
Zillow Offers ran on a forecast of what a house would sell for. When the write-down came, the real question was not how to fix the forecast but whether to buy on it at all.
The Grounding Test
The Grounding Test
Three questions to ask of any AI-generated sentence before it reaches a board deck, a customer email, or a forecast: what would have to be true, who can check it, and who finds out first if it is wrong.
Who Has Contact With the Thing?
Who Has Contact With the Thing?
Harnad asked how symbols can mean anything inside a system, and Bender and colleagues asked it of language models. A model works entirely on the sign side, so someone has to supply the referent.
What the Data Is Evidence Of
What the Data Is Evidence Of
Amazon's experimental recruiting model learned a pattern of past hiring, not the ability to do the job. The gap between the sign and the thing is closed before training starts, by deciding what the data is evidence of.
The Stand-For Audit
The Stand-For Audit
A one-hour exercise for a leadership team: write what each of your five most-watched metrics stands for, who can move it without moving the thing, and what you would see if it rose while the thing did not.
When a Measure Becomes a Target
When a Measure Becomes a Target
Goodhart and Strathern warned that a measure stops measuring once it becomes a target. Peirce's three-part idea of a sign shows exactly where the connection breaks, and why AI makes it break faster.
The Number That Replaced the Thing
The Number That Replaced the Thing
In 2016 Wells Fargo paid $185 million after a sales goal came loose from the customer it was meant to represent. AI makes that failure faster, and keeping the number tied to the thing is now a leadership question.
Six Weeks, Then Rest
Six Weeks, Then Rest
Basecamp builds in six-week cycles and then stops for two weeks on purpose. It is the same instinct as a lesson from my own book: fast loops are a season, not a lifestyle.
The Body That Dissolved Itself
The Body That Dissolved Itself
In 2013 Adobe told its customers Creative Suite 6 would be the last boxed version. It is the clearest business example I know of a caterpillar's most uncomfortable word.
Ninety-Eight Percent from the Machine
Ninety-Eight Percent from the Machine
In 2023, more than 300 people attended a church service written almost entirely by ChatGPT. What they said afterward is the best argument I know for what AI is actually for.